Another Reason Clinton Lost Michigan: Trump Was Listed First on the Ballot

Trump’s margin of victory in Michigan in 2016 was so small that he probably wouldn’t have won the state if he hadn’t been listed first on the ballot. I discuss the effect in a recent Center for Political Studies Blog Post

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Biased Perceptions of Polls in the 2016 Election

When Democrats and Republicans see polls that suggest that their favored candidate is losing, they regard those polls as lower quality than polls that suggest a favored candidate is winning. Read more in the Monkey Cage blog at the Washington … Continue reading

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Racial Divide in Views of Ferguson Ahead of Grand Jury Announcement

White and Black Americans couldn’t be more divided when it comes to perceptions of what happened or what should happen in Ferguson.  Our survey of views on Ferguson just appeared in the Detroit Free Press.  Additional data is available here.     … Continue reading

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Candidates Listed First Get More Votes

In two new publications I looked at whether individuals listed first on the ballot received systematically more votes than those listed later.  In both North Dakota and California elections, first-listed candidates received a small (less than one percentage point) but … Continue reading

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In the New York Times: Is Racial Prejudice Getting Worse?

I was asked to write a “Room For Debate” piece for the New York Times on whether racial prejudice was getting worse during the Obama era.  See my response here:

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Racism in the 2012 Elections

Results of a new survey I conducted in conjunction with the Associated Press and Stanford University suggest that racial attitudes will likely hurt President Obama’s reelection prospects in 2012. In general, we found that the prevalence of anti-Black attitudes increased … Continue reading

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Would Americans Be More Supportive of Health Care If They Knew More About It?

Since before the passage of the Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. Obamacare), it became clear that support for the health care plan (both the bill and the law) was destined to be controversial.  Whereas Democrats contended that those who knew more … Continue reading

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Online weighting tool now available

With considerable help from Gaurav Sood, the online weighting tool based on anesrake is now available at  Please feel free to use it and let me know if you run into any interface issues.

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Update to weights Package

Recently updated to my weights package on CRAN to version 0.70.  Of particular note is a new function called nalevs, which recodes a variable to range from 0-1, and can do useful functions such as set some values of a … Continue reading

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Now at the University of Michigan

I recently took up my new home at the University of Michigan.  I will be based in the department of Communication Studies and will be teaching two courses in the fall semester: one on Social Media and Politics and one … Continue reading

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