Results of a new survey I conducted in conjunction with the Associated Press and Stanford University suggest that racial attitudes will likely hurt President Obama’s reelection prospects in 2012. In general, we found that the prevalence of anti-Black attitudes increased between 2008 and 2012. Predicting the influence of racial attitudes on the expected vote shares for the two major party candidates, we suggest that the influence of anti-Black attitudes is likely to be between four and five percentage points and that the net influence of both pro- and anti-Black attitudes will reduce Obama’s proportion of the vote by around two percentage points. The Associated Press is reporting on the story in today’s news:
The analytical strategy was presented in an article we published in Public Opinion Quarterly.
Here is the full report for the current study:
I am quoted on the issue in the Toronto Star.